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                                                                                                                                                                          葡京平台开户:旅游酒店:扩张和REVPAR提升的业绩弹性 荐3股

                                                                                                                                                                          2019-04-11 14:00 G-build新闻网
                                                                                                                                                                              投资要点酒店转变为由需求主导。酒店数据和固定资产投资数据共同佐证我国酒店行业已经过了高速扩张的时期,供给步入稳态,行业的波动将更多由需求主导。我们认为第三产业用电量对刻画酒店需求有较好的拟合效果。华住的同店出租率同比增减的顶和底相对第三产业用电量同比增速存在3个季度左右的滞后。如果此规律持续有效,那么用电量增速从18Q1开始的上行将驱动酒店出租率从18Q4开始回暖。

                                                                                                                                                                          结构优化令RevPAR波动向上。RevPAR的提升是酒店盈利能力提升的关键指标,那么将出租率、平均房价和RevPAR的关系抽象来看,RevPAR提升伴随着出租率增幅的收窄和平均房价增幅的扩大,从华住同店数据来看,酒店集团即将进入此阶段。在叠加结构优化的情况下,RevPAR依旧会周期性波动,但很可能是波动向上的格局,即RevPAR增速一直为正。

                                                                                                                                                                          扩张带来的业绩弹性:新增一家直营中端酒店边际可贡献250+万净利润;新增一家加盟经济型/中端酒店边际贡献净利润15+/30+万净利润。

                                                                                                                                                                          由于三家酒店集团直营数量相对稳定,主要增量来自加盟酒店,因此我们主要测算加盟数量提升带来的业绩增量。根据开店计划及历史情况,假设锦江/首旅/华住19年分别净增900/300/800家加盟酒店,平局分布在全年开业,边际净利率40%,根据18年单加盟酒店的收入来测算(首旅按照17年数据叠加20%增速模拟),锦江/首旅/华住19年的利润增量约为1.82/0.38/1.22亿元。

                                                                                                                                                                          RevPAR变动带来的业绩弹性:直营酒店对RevPAR变动的弹性更加明显,约为1:3~1:4在RevPAR上行时直营比例高、直营净利率低的酒店集团将享有更大的业绩弹性,加盟酒店对RevPAR变动的弹性较小,约为1:1,在RevPAR下行时加盟比例高的酒店集团业绩承压较小。

                                                                                                                                                                          直营业务方面,若RevPAR提升1%,从17年的数据看,锦江和华住的业绩弹性接近4%,首旅的业绩弹性约6.7%,主要与首旅直营占比较高有关。加盟业务方面,若RevPAR提升1%,三家酒店集团的业绩弹性都在1%左右。

                                                                                                                                                                          个股推荐:建议重点关注锦江股份(600754)、首旅酒店(600258)、华住。

                                                                                                                                                                          风险提示:宏观经济增速下行,酒店行业整体需求欠佳;地区突发性事件对当地旅游业务的负面影响。